2008

Random 1:30 AM musing.

Despite being the freaking governor of freaking Arkansas and overcoming a highly credible allegation of marital infidelity, Bill Clinton won in 1992. He was and is a very, very talented politician but he won mostly because the economy was weak, George Bush was a poor candidate and Ross Perot siphoned votes away from Bush. He did not win because of some sweeping Democratic mandate.

In 1996, the economy was in much better shape, Clinton was the incumbent, Perot ran again and old war hero Bob Dole was the GOP candidate for president. Clinton won in a landslide, but the House and Senate were definitely drifting to the Republicans by then. 1994 was the Republican revolution after all. Clinton was at the height of his powers and he could not move congress in his direction. In retrospect, it was not the victory that Democrats imagined it would be.

In 2000, Gore benefited from being the sitting Vice President, but he was also hurt by Clinton fatigue. The economy was rolling but Lewinsky was the cherry on the top of Clinton scandal after scandal. Us libs don’t like to admit this, but while it is true that the right lied about Clinton on many an occasion, Clinton was not by any means the picture of perfect ethics or morals. Alas, Gore was a poor candidate and Bush was a good one but Gore really should have won this. The GOP gained seats in both houses of congress. The country was most definitely trending red and center-right.

In 2004, Bush was a sitting president and in the 2002 mid terms the GOP defied years of electoral history and gained seats in the house. September 11'th made Bush and the GOP very, very popular and the terrorist threat was the case for Bush’s re-election. On the other hand, Democrats were straight up pissed because of Iraq and Florida '00 and various and sundry. Bush eaked out a victory over a very weak candidate and the Republicans took a commanding lead in congress. The Democratic party was presumed to be dead.

Not without reason. After Bill Clinton’s was victory in 1992 following 12 years of Republicans in the White House, Democrats saw ever increasing losses in the House and Senate and were also unable to capture the presidency two out of three times. By 2004, the country had a very decided center right tilt and GOP strategists were crowing about a permanent Republican majority.

I in 2006 the Democrats saw shocking gains in both houses of congress. They went from being a definite minority in both houses to a workable majority in the House and an ever so slight majority in the Senate. Barring something absolutely huge, Barack Obama is going to win easily without the benefit of a third party candidate. Granted, Obama is facing the old war hero, but John McCain came in to this with much more name recognition than Bob Dole did. Most Americans who even halfway pay attention to politics had heard of John McCain prior to the campaign and most of them had a favorable view of him other than the conservative base, very ironically as it turns out.

Much of the credit for Obama's victory will rightly be attributed to his undeniable political talent as well as a truly brilliant campaign (And, of course, a "phoned it in" joke of a campaign on the part of McCain) but I think the biggest story will end up being a highly significant shift from center-right to center-left in the American electorate and it is likely to last beyond this particular cycle. Seven years after 9/11, we are talking about a black man named Barack Hussein Obama comfortably winning the United States Presidency. Even I was not about to predict Obama winning in anything other than a very, very close election as recently as a month ago.

But who wins the presidency is not the main story. That will receive the bulk of the coverage, but the real story will be increased Democratic majorities in both houses of congress. The conservative predictions are around 250 in the House and 56 in the Senate. It is going to be higher than that. Everything is working in favor of the Democrats.

2004 was a huge wake up call for the Democratic party. For years they had really seemed to just assume that the majority of Americans agreed with them and that they didn't have to do anything other than to show up no matter how much bullshit the Republicans flung at them. Instead of emulating the Republicans and focusing on the ground anywhere and everywhere, the Democrats just straight up wrote off states that traditionally leaned Republican no matter how slight the GOP lean. Anyone who thinks about this for even five seconds realizes that if one guy is trying and the other is not, the guy who is trying is going to win.

After the bloodbath of 2004, Howard Dean was tapped to head the DNC precisely because of his much discussed 50 state strategy. The right howled with laughing derision at the time, but this ended up being just a brilliant selection. In contrast with the Clinton era DNC, suddenly the party was willing to send money to whoever showed some promise of winning any national election in any and every state.

2004 was the first year where I think we saw the internet begin to have a major influence and it easily favored the Democrats. By 2006 the internet had become a fund raising game changer with Democratic candidates winning virtually every close election. It is too soon to even begin to properly put this in to context yet but the amount of money that Barack Obama and the Democratic party have been able to raise will probably end the big money bad food fundraising paradigm of oh so many years. The Democrats are using the internet to get small amounts from large amounts of people over and over again and the GOP can no longer compete by relying only on high dollar donors.

The very mention of dailykos is immediately given the "lib bias!" dismissal from the right but they ignore it at their own peril. dkos and the Democratic netroots is not some passing media fad to be ignored. No question, the netroots are very much partisan, but is anyone going to tell me that talk radio, Fox News, NRO, etc al and on and on aren't? The rise of the left on the internet, Comedy Central, MSNBC and etc was merely a natural response to the aggressive media presence of the right.

dkos is now an election hub for Democrats. In the time it takes to click a mouse a few times a Democratic activist in Ohio can find out what is happening on the ground in Colorado. Polling data is presented regardless of which party is leading and in every state. Encouragement is offered and venting is tolerated. All of these things are great for the party but the salient point is the fundraising.

As I see it, the major function of dkos for the Democratic party has been to raise money across the board. I just cannot emphasize how important this is. If a Democratic candidate for any national office gets within even 15 points, the netroots is freaking ON IT. The poll result is posted, volunteers are recruited and money is donated by small donors in very large numbers. This is going to be the new campaign machinery.

I'll be the first one to admit that none of this would have happened had the GOP not turned chicken salad in to chicken shit. Just naming what comes in to my head as GOP negatives randomly….

Iraq, economy(!!!!!!!), Cheney(!), Larry Craig, Abramoff, Justice dept., torture, Gitmo, bin Laden, domestic spying, CIA outing, stem cell, Enron, Stevens, deficit, spending, rich tax cuts, corruption.

I’m a lib Democrat but that is nevertheless quite the list.

McCain has proven to be a weak candidate and his ground game has been a myth as of this writing. We are at the “HOLY FUCKING SHIT DUDE IT IS TIME TO FUCKING PANIC!!!” point when it comes to the economy. The Democrats have more money. The Democrats have more ground game and enthusiasm. The Democrats have the better presidential candidate. The Democrats have the better strategic blue print. This is GOP doom.

When all is said and done, 2008 will be the year that the USA swung center-left and gave the Democratic party a clear opportunity to lead the country. We’ll see what happens.

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Obama accepts the Democratic nomination

I'm obviously biased, but I think that was the best speech I have ever seen in my life. Will it be considered one of the greatest political speeches ever? Maybe, maybe not.

No matter what the talking heads have to say, this was not a centrist speech. This was a full on, balls out defense of American liberalism. For a long time, far too long, the Democratic party has sat back and taken it while the Republican party attacked and attacked and attacked. No matter what the results were, Democrats were too timid to remind people about a liberalism that began with Roosevelt and continued through Truman and Kennedy and LBJ and even Clinton. After the past eight years of conservative rule someone needed to step forward and, as Obama did tonight, say [i]enough[/i]. We cannot afford nor allow the GOP as it now exists to be in control of the government. They have totally and utterly failed in their task, their responsibility and in their public trust. For the good of the nation, they must be removed.

It was also as patriotic as any speech given by Reagan or Kennedy and they pretty much are the standard for modern political speakers. The speech was all about the greatness of America's promise, the idea of American instead of empty appeals to flag pins. Conservatives really don't seem to understand the we liberals and Democrats love this country every bit as much as you do. Frankly, I've always been a little bit insulted any time I have had my patriotism questioned. We Democrats are the liberals, the progressives, the type who want to change the status quo. But we want to change the way things are because we want to make things better. I'm not questioning any conservative reading this at all on intentions either. I think you conservatives love America and want to do the right thing. But Jesus, why do we even need to have this conversation? [i]Of course[/i] we all love America. I think Obama got that message across to most people who watched with a truly open mind about who they were going to vote for.

We won't know how this will play politically but I would bet on it producing a hell of a post-convention bump. He didn't attack McCain much at all, but he did play compare and contrast on the issues while also harshly rebuking all of the McCain campaign's smears. There is simply no way McCain will come anywhere close to matching this at the Republican convention. The 2008 Democratic convention was a total success. Urged on by the Rush set, the media predicted party fratricide as the Clintons would totally shiv the Obama campaign. Bill and Hillary Clinton both delivered excellent speeches that endorsed Obama with no note of disunity or discord. Joe Biden's speech was surprisingly good, John Kerry unexpectedly got some revenge for Swift Boat, Ted Kennedy gave his valedictory, Michelle Obama and the kids re-introduced themselves to America and a whole lot of people were watching.

Oh bama...hope in Denver

Go democracy!

Temple Visit

The construction of a new Mormon temple in Twin Falls, ID (where I live, fubes) was completed a few months ago. As the Mormons do, there is a month and a half long viewing open to the public. Last night my wife and I (plus the little one) took the tour. In advance, I should note that both of us are non-religious. I am a committed agnostic, fully aware of the irony of that particular belief. My wife maintains a belief in a higher power, she just isn't so presumptuous to suggest a particular belief system that you all need to believe in or be cast in to eternal damnation.

Anyway, onward and upward. I was raised Mormon so nothing about the tour came as a surprise, not even the shoe covers at the entrance. The Mormons take their shit seriously. No expense is spared (and they have the revenue to do so) and they just aren't going to sit back and allow my dumb ass to walk on their shiny new floors in my black Chuck Taylor's without bootie socks. Lord, I wish I was kidding. But, alas, I am not. I had to lift my feet up both for the application and removal of my own bootie socks. I trust that I did not harm the floor of the temple.

Our tour guide (and her name tag said as much) then led us through the temple. Our first stop was the baptismal font; from there we were then led through the Mormon-belief-centric rooms that correspond directly with the Mormon belief that heaven is divided in to the Terrestial, Telestial and Celestial Kingdoms. The Terrestial room was a huge letdown since the Shoshone Falls Mural was laaaaaaaaaaaame. The Telestial Room had nothing notable about it and even the brainwashed "Tour Guide" could find little to recommend it.

The Celestial Room, OTOH, had a bad ass mother fucking chandeliere. I don't know why exactly, and the wife and I both asked my Mormon parents about it, but we weren't allowed to talk in that room. Did I mention it had a bad ass mother fucking chandeliere? It had that. The room would have been mediocre if not for the bad ass mother fucking chandeliere. In any case, that was the best room in the entire structure.

From there we were led on to the sealing rooms. Mormon doctrine holds that families can be together forever, literally for time and all eternity, if they would only go the the temple and seal it up. My parents got in on that action when I was first adopted, but on this particular tour "papa" escorted our 14 month old out of the venue.

The wife and I both went with the sole agenda of "shiny, pretty, look" and we were both underwhelmed. That is not at all a judgment for or against Mormanism. In fact, on the way out I hope that we may have blown the mind of an anti-Mormon protestor. I was just driving away from the temple, making my legally required stop at the corner when said anti-Mormon protestor offered us a free DVD. We both ignored that so he told us both to make sure that we checked out his web site.

Reflexively, my wife flipped him off and God bless her. What a mind fuck that must have been for the protestor though. Mormons don't flip people off, they invite people over for Family Home Evening!?

First post out of the way.